12.04.18 • -3.24%
Near term factors:
President Trump and Xi meeting on possible “Truce”
OPEC meeting December 6th
Yield curve inverted for short term treasuries
Long term factors:
The FED raising rates
Yield curve inversion
U.S Economy vs. Stock Market
Today we saw the perfect storm of event driven worries that finally hit the market. We observed the yield curve go inverted for a short amount of time with near term treasuries. Investors now seem to be questioning whether or not the “trade deal” will actually go through between President Xi and Trump.
With a broad based “puke” on U.S equities this sell-off is hitting all sectors with the exception of utilities. Today around 12:00 pm CST we saw the 200 day moving average breach that led to algorithms triggering, which dumped many of their long positions. These computers can drive large swings in the market.
The key takeaway is that many recessions in the United States have been preemptively foretasted by an inverted yield curve. This is definitely something to take note of over the next few months as a canary in the coal mine to keep your long term investments protected.
Tomorrow the U.S markets will be closed to honor Former President George H. W. Bush for his service.
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